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February 5, 2025 | NSE: MTNL | BSE: MTNL
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL) shares increased by 20%, to 57.16, marking the peak in the day’s trade. The stock, which previously increased by over 17% in the last three months, has had a bullish run.
Key Highlights of MTNL Share Price Movement:
- Opening Price: ₹54
- Day’s High: ₹57.16 (Upper Circuit)
- 52-Week Range: ₹31.24 – ₹101.88
- MTNL Stock Gain in 3 Months: +17%
What is the fundamental cause for this sudden increase in MTNL’s share price? Let us explore some of the fundamental reasons, technical factors, and suggestions from specialists.
Key Drivers Behind MTNL’s Share Price Surge
Asset Monetization Plan
Perhaps the biggest reason for MTNL’s price increase is the government’s promise to support MTNL and BSNL in monetizing assets for better financial improvements.
In a more recent note, DIPAM Secretary Arunish Chawla has stated that the Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) will look to unlock value from MTNL’s extensive real estate and telecom infrastructure assets.
Chawla’s Statement:
“We are going to assist MTNL and BSNL in the monetization of their assets in an attempt to eliminate the liabilities of these companies and to rejuvenate the sector.”
This is what created the sharp rally of MTNL, having fueled investor trust drastically.
Government Assistance and Budget 2025 Investment
The Union Budget 2025 included an expansion plan for broadband meant to improve connections in government schools and healthcare centers. Given that MTNL has a footprint in Delhi and Mumbai, this company stands to gain from this digital initiative.
📢 Statement by Minister Nirmala Sitharaman:
“The launch of PPP (Public-Private Partnership) models for state broadband networks offers a fantastic opportunity to achieve last mile broadband connectivity to important metros using government telecoms.”
💡 Impact on MTNL Share Price:
✔️ Boosts MTNL’s competitive infrastructure within the telecom industry of India.
✔️ Satisfies the objectives of 5G implementation and the digitization efforts
✔️ Government services contract opportunities increase
Technical Breakout and Short Covering Rally
- MTNL stock price is showing a bullish pattern as it surpassed the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at ₹48.20.
- There is a majority consensus among technical analysts that the breakout above the Ichimoku cloud indicates potential for further increases.
Key Technical Indicators for MTNL
| Indicator | Level | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 200-day EMA | ₹48.20 | Bullish Breakout |
| RSI (14-day) | 72 | Overbought Zone |
| Camarilla Pivot (R4) | ₹57.16 | Resistance Level Hit |
| MACD Signal | Bullish Crossover | Momentum Strengthening |
MTNL Technical Analysis and Future Forecast
As per technical charts, it seems MTNL stock has:
- ✅ Exited the Ichimoku cloud (this is optimistic)
- ✅ Surpassed the R4 Camarilla Pivot Resistance Level
- ✅ RSI value surpassing 70 means overbought conditions
📢 Jigar Patel, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Anand Rathi, Comments:
“I believe the stock has gained strong upside momentum subsequent to breaking through the ₹53 resistance level. Mark my words, as long as it sustains above ₹54 you will see further upside towards ₹64 in the near term.”
Advice From The Experts: Purchase, Retain, or Liquidate Assets?
- Technical analysts provide a ‘buy-on-dips’ strategy, holding a stop-loss at ₹48 and a target of ₹64-70.
- Avinash Gorakshkar, Head of Research at Profitmart Securities:
- “Investors must be careful as the ongoing rally is purely market sentiment driven. In the long run, a divestment strategy from the government will be critical.”
MTNL Stock Forecast & Price Targets for 2025
| Month | MTNL Share Price Target (₹) |
|---|---|
| Feb 2025 | ₹55.12 |
| March 2025 | ₹56.90 |
| April 2025 | ₹58.84 |
| June 2025 | ₹62.70 |
| Dec 2025 | ₹76.24 |
💡 Long-term target (2030): ₹534.81 (as per technical analysis projections).
Risks & Challenges for MTNL Investors
Although MTNL’s recent rally is impressive, investors must also keep in mind major risks:
- High Debt Levels – MTNL is an NPA (Non-Performing Asset) in the eyes of some lenders.
- Regulatory Uncertainty – Changes in government policy can affect future earnings.
- Declining Subscriber Base – Cut-throat competition from Reliance Jio, Airtel, and Vodafone-Idea.
- Speculative Rally? – The current rally is sentiment-based, without a clear government divestment plan.
Conclusion: Is MTNL a Good Buy in 2025?
MTNL’s stock price has risen 20% due to robust government support, asset monetization plans, and technical breakouts.
However, underlying challenges such as debt burden and subscriber loss persist.
Final Investment Call:
- Short-Term Traders: Buy on dips, target ₹64-70, stop-loss ₹48
- Long-Term Investors: Wait for government’s clear divestment roadmap
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